![]() These policies, together with investments in human capital, changing roles for women and other factors, contributed to China’s plummeting fertility rate in the 1970s and to the more gradual declines that followed in the 1980s and 1990s. ![]() In China, the most notable policies were the “later, longer, fewer” campaign of the 1970s, which promoted later marriage, longer intervals between births and fewer children overall, as well as the stricter “one-child” policy, in effect from 1980 until 2015, which limited couples to one or two children with some exceptions (Wang and others, 2016). During the second half of the twentieth century, both countries made concerted efforts to curb rapid population growth through policies that targeted fertility levels. Many factors contributed to falling birth rates in China and India, but the relative contributions of each remain a matter of debate (Bongaarts and Hodgson, 2022). ![]() Population policies in China and India had different impacts Key determinants include improvements in nutrition and public health, which reduce mortality especially among children increased levels of education, particularly for girls and women, often associated with declining levels of mortality and fertility urbanization expanded access to reproductive health-care services, including for family planning and women’s empowerment and labour force participation. The timing, speed and intensity of the demographic transition have differed markedly across countries and regions, depending on multiple factors of human development. According to the United Nations’ latest projections, India’s population is expected to reach its peak size around 2064 and then to decline gradually.Ĭhina and India offer contrasting examples of national trajectories through the demographic transition towards longer lives and smaller families. In 2022, at 1.2 births per woman, China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates India’s fertility rate, at 2.0 births per woman, was just below the “replacement” threshold of 2.1, the level required for population stabilization in the long run. By contrast, the fertility decline in India has been more gradual: it took three and a half decades for India to experience the same fertility reduction that occurred in China over just seven years in the 1970s. Fertility in China fell sharply to fewer than 3 births per woman by the end of the 1970s (figure 3). ![]() In 1971, China and India had nearly identical levels of total fertility, with just under 6 births per woman over a lifetime. Current population trends in China and India are determined largely by fertility levels since the 1970s Uncertainty associated with the resulting estimates and projections implies that the date on which India is expected to surpass China in population size is approximate and subject to revision as more data become available. To estimate and project the size of the Indian and Chinese populations for subsequent years after their last censuses, the United Nations relies on information about levels and trends in fertility, mortality and international migration obtained from vital records, surveys and administrative data (United Nations, 2022b). India’s planned 2021 census was delayed due to challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and is now scheduled for 2024. More than a decade has passed since India’s most recent census in 2011. In China, the most recent census was taken in November 2020. Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population will continue to fall and could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century.Ĭensuses are key sources of information about population size and characteristicsīoth China and India conduct regular population and housing censuses to enumerate and document their national populations, and both countries use the information obtained to inform their development planning. By contrast, China’s population reached its peak size recently and experienced a decline during 2022. India’s population is virtually certain to continue to grow for several decades. In April 2023, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China (figure 1). The latest estimates and projections of global population from the United Nations, indicate that China will soon cede its long-held status as the world’s most populous country. Two “population billionaires”, China and India, face divergent demographic futures
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